AIDS, Security, and Democracy

The spread of infectious disease is arguably one of the greatest threats to security and democratic governance in the modern world. The World Health Organization estimates that since 1945 three diseases alone AIDS, TB and malaria have claimed 150 million lives, many times the 23 million deaths from wars. Despite the catastrophic effects, however, the relationship among infectious disease, security, and democracy is poorly understood. Three researchers at the College of William and Mary Government Professors Jenny Kehl, Susan Peterson, and Stephen Shellman are seeking to empirically test hypothesized relationships among HIV/AIDS, democracy, and security. More specifically, they explore the impact of HIV/AIDS on national security and democratic governance, as well as the impact of national security and democratic institutions (or the lack thereof) on the spread of HIV/AIDS.

Part one of the project, now underway, explores the now conventional wisdom that HIV/ AIDS decreases security by undermining social and economic conditions, which in turn increases instability, crime, domestic violence, protest, and civil and international war. The research employs newly obtained AIDS data from the World Health Organization and existing data from the World Bank, United Nations, International Labour Organization, and the Banks Cross-polity time series database. The primary purpose is to test the indirect effect of AIDS on security through intervening economic and political variables. Cross-Sectional Times Series data is used to test the model for 140 countries from 1986-2000.

Once compiled, this dataset will allow the researchers in subsequent studies to empirically test widespread assumptions in the literature that security the absence of civil and international war, political instability, crime, riots, and protests and democratic institutions regular and contested elections, strong civil society, government legitimacy, and a strong private sector can help slow the progression of HIV/AIDS.